Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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Rba-Renter-Sats-Beslutningen 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
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Inflasjonen (Årlig) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
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API for råoljeaksjer OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
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Markit Services Pmi Finalen OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
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Boj Rentemøte Minutes
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Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 Faktiske Forrige Snittforvetning Forventning
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Detaljhandel (månedlig) Final SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
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Caixin - Tjenester - Smb OCT 56.8 54.8 54
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Arbeidsledigheten Change OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
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Markit-Tjenester-Pmi OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
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HS - Marker det - Tjenester - SMB OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
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Markit Services Pmi Finalen OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
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Markit Services Pmi Finalen OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
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Markit Services Pmi Finalen OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
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Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI Final OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
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Industriell Produksjon (Månedlig) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
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Forandring i ADP arbeidsledighet OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
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Handelsbalanse SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
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Markit Composite Pmi Finalen OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
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Markit Services Pmi Finalen OCT 56.9 54.6 56
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Ism - Ikke - Produksjon - Forretnings - Aktivitet OCT 61.2 63 62 60
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Ism Non-Manufacturing Sysselsetting OCT 50.1 51.8 52
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Ism Non-Manufacturing Nye Bestillinger OCT 58.8 61.5 61
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Ism-Non-Manufacturing-Pmi OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
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Ism Non-Manufacturing Prisene OCT 63.9 59 58
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Eia Crude Oil Stocks Endre OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
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EIA Destillate Stocks Change OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
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Totalt Vehicle Sales OCT 16.2M 16.3M
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Handelsbalanse SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
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Jibun - Bank - Tjenester - SMB - Endelig OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
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Bnp-Vekst Kvartal Over Kvartal Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
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Bnp Vekstrate (Årlig) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
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Factory Orders (Månedlig) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
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Boe Rentebeslutningen 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
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BoE - MPC - Stemme - Kutte opp 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
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BoE MPC Stem uendret 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
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Boe Kvantitative Lettelser £875B £745B £825B £845B
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Bygg Pmi OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
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Bygg Pmi OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
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Butikkhandel (Månedlig) SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
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Butikkhandel (Årlig) SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
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Forbrukertillit OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
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Forbrukertillit OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
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Markit-Tjenester-Pmi OCT 52.3 50.4 51
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Nye arbeidsledige OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
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Arbeidsløse krav 4-ukers gjennomsnitt OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
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Nonfarm Produktivitet Kvartal Over Kvartal Prel Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
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Enhet Lønnskostnader Kvartal Over Kvartal Prel Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
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Fed Rentebeslutningen 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
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Ai - Gruppe - Tjenester - Indeks OCT 51.4 36.2 37
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Industriell Produksjon (Månedlig) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
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Handelsbalanse SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
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Halifax Boligprisindeksen (Månedlig) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
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Halifax Boligprisindeksen (Årlig) OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
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Butikkhandel (Månedlig) SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
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Inflasjonen (Årlig) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
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Arbeidsledighetsrate OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
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Fulltid Sysselsetting Endr. OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
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Deltakelsen OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
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Arbeidsledighet OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
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Ivey Pmi Sa OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
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Engros Varelager (Månedlig) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
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Inflasjonen (Årlig) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
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Handelsbalanse OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
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Eksport (Årlig) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
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Import (Årlig) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
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