Zambia - Sammensatt Pmi

The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI edged up to 48.7 in November of 2019 from 48.3 in October, pointing to the ninth straight month of contraction in private sector activity, with power cuts adding to challenging economic conditions. New orders fell only slightly, but output was down at a solid pace. On the other hand, employment increased for the third month running. On the price front, marginal increases in purchase prices and staff costs were recorded and output prices were also up modestly, and at the second-weakest pace in 14 months. Finally, business confidence picked up to an eight-month high amid hopes of a more stable business environment, including a strengthening of the kwacha against the US dollar.

The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI dropped to 48.3 in October 2019 from 48.8 in the previous month, signalling a further modest deterioration in operating conditions in the country's private sector. There was a sharper contraction in business activity due to a lack of money in circulation and power cuts, while new orders declined the least for eight months amid some signs of demand improving. Employment rose only marginally while companies continued to reduce their backlogs of work. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low while output charge inflation was the weakest in 13 months. Looking ahead, business confidence improved from September's 39-month low, but remained below the series average.

The Stanbic Bank Zambia increased to 48.8 in September 2019 from 46 in August. The reading pointed to the seventh consecutive contraction in the private sector, still the weakest in the current sequence of deterioration, as output dropped at the softest pace in six months. Also, new orders declined at a slower rate amid signs of customer demand improving and employment rose for the first time in six months boosted by efforts to improve operating capacity. Backlogs of work continued to drop, albeit at the weakest pace since July last year. Meantime, stocks of inputs went up, amid improvements in demand and suppliers' delivery times lengthened for the first time in 22 months. On the price front, input cost inflation rose due to currency weakness and output price inflation eased to a six-month low. Looking ahead, sentiment declined to a 39-month low mostly due to concerns about market conditions and unpredictability around the future.

The Stanbic Bank Zambia rose to 46.0 in August 2019 from 44.4 in the previous month, signalling a sixth successive monthly deterioration in the country's business conditions but at a softer pace. Output, employment and purchasing activity decreased less. However, new orders fell steeply, amid a lack of money and low customer numbers. Despite the reduction in operating capacity, companies were still able to work through outstanding business, which led backlogs to decline for the fourteenth month running. On the price front, overall input costs increased at the slowest pace since April. Also, output prices increased the least in four months, as firms offered discounts as part of efforts to attract clients. Looking ahead, business sentiment remained positive, on hopes of an improvement in business conditions.

The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI dropped to 44.4 in July 2019 from 46.6 in the previous month, signalling a fifth successive monthly deterioration in the country's business conditions and at a sharper pace. Output, new orders and employment fell further, amid a lack of money in the economy and weaker demand. Also, purchasing activity decreased and at a solid pace as firms were reluctant to hold excess stock in a weak demand environment. This led inventories to fall for the fifth month in a row. On the price front, both input prices and output prices continued to rise sharply, linked to the weakness of the Zambian kwacha and higher fuel prices. Lastly, business sentiment reached a four-month high, amid hopes that economic conditions will recover over the coming year.

The Stanbic Bank Zambia PMI rose to 46.6 in June 2019 from 43.9 in the previous month, signalling a fourth successive monthly deterioration in the health of the Zambian private sector, though at a softer pace. Output, new orders and employment continued to decline but less, linked to currency weakness and delays in receiving payments from customers. As a result, backlogs of work fell and purchasing activity decreased for the fourth month running. In terms of prices, input inflation accelerated markedly and output charge inflation hit a 43-month high. Looking ahead, companies remained optimistic, amid hopes that market conditions would improve over the coming year.